Resume Predicting a State’s Foreign Policy:State Preferences between Domestic and International Constraints

Predicting a State’s Foreign Policy:State Preferences between Domestic and International Constraints

Two structural variables are taken as the point of departure:the polarity of the domestic system(domestic structure)and the polarity of the international system.States and government are sensitive to these constraints in the proses of preference formation such as internal and external polarity.External polarity affects the stability of power relations and thereby the degree of which states need to take accounts in the external interest.High internal polarity will give the government more freedom of maneuever than low internal polarity as it imposes relatively loose domestic constraints.

State Interests               

Table 1.Dimension of the Interest in Survival of State and Government

External	Interest	Internal
Defending the relative power position of the state.	Political Material Interest.	Remaining in office(re-eletion).
Defending the state’s credibility.	Political Immaterial Interest.	Defending the government’s creibility.
Tuning international trading aggrements to the state’s institusional trade oppurtunities.	Economic Interest.	Maximizing national economic indicators:state budget,GNP,employement,etc.
Safeguarding the”role”the state wishes to play in the international system.	Ideological Interest.	Defending the government’s policy principles and paradigsm.

The Domestic Level :Internal Polarity and the Process of Preference Formation

As Putnam’s Metaphor of two-level games cleary illustrates,states are involved in two games imultaneously,one at the domestic level and one at the international level.This section focuses on the domestic level.

1.The effects of structural variable of internal polarity on preference-formation.

2.Process variable and the actual outcome.

Internal Polarity

Refers to the degree to which power is concentrated within the state.It essentially focuses on the power of the government in realtion to society.There are three factors to estimite institusional factors:

1. The degree to which power is centralized within the state
2. Power relation between government and parliament
3. The system of interest mediation

The degree to which power is centralized within the state

The degree to which power is centralized within the state affects governance capability as indicates the degre to which to consent of lower levels of government to be able to take policy-decisions.IN a unitary state,the degre of centralization is high and in a federal state,the degree of centralization is low.

Executive-Legislative Relations

Executive-Legislative Relation are characterized by an executive-legislative balance.In bicameral parliament systems, executive-Legislative Relation are characterized by an executive-legislative balance if the governement has stable majority in both the upper amd the lower chamber and executive-legislative relation are legislative dominated if the governement has a minority or merely a narrow majority in either of the two chambers.

Method of Interest Mediation

The degree to  which interest interest mediation is institutionalized affects governance capacity,as it indicates the degree to which societal groups can blok the policis prorosed by government.A pluralist method of interest representation does not provide societal groups with veto power.Apart  from the fact that these groups lack formal decision making power,the preserence of several competing interest could in principle mean that they will prevent one another from realizing their interest directly.

The process of Preference Formation:Mobilization,Resources,and Sensitivity

The domestic structure of the states provides information on the structural power realtion between government and society,and threfore about the government’s general ability to ignore societal demands or about the general ability of society to influence the government.

Table2.Internal Institutuions Indicators and Internal Polarity

	High degree of centralization		Low degree of centralization
	Executive –Legislative Balance	Legislative dominated	Executive –Legislative Balance	Legislative dominated
Pluralism	3	2	2	1
Coporatism	2	1	1	0

The process variables elaborated intervene between the expectations based on the structural variable of internal polarity and the actual outcome.When the degree unidirectional mobilization,the ampunt of societal resources and the degree  of governmental sensitivity are very high,this may result in societal influence on national preferences,even in states with a high internal polarity.

The Internal Level:External Polarity and the Process of Preference Formation

External Polarity

The international system is a system of self-help due to its anarchic structure.An anarchical strucutre implies that states have to worry about their external interest and take care of its own survival.External polarity indicates the distribution of power beteween the states in the international system,in the same manner that internal polarity indicated the power relations between government and societal actors in the domestic system.Its polarity affects the the stability of power relations and thereby the degree to which states have to take account of their external interest.

The virtue of “the inequality of states”is that it “makes peace stability possible”.Bipolar system are more stable than multipolar systems.The flexibility of alliances, power relations in multipolar system are less stable than power relations in bipolar systems.In multipolar system,the “tendency of coalition to gain lose partners”makes the “resolve of opposing states and also the size and strenghth of opposing coalitions hard to calculate.Consequently,in a bipolar system is relatively stable compared to a multipolar system.

The more stable in the international system ,the less uncertain and contrained the positon of states within this system.As a consequence ,middle powers will be less concerned about their power position in a bipolar system than in multipolar system.

The Process of Preference Formation:State Vulnerability

State vulnerability is a process variable intervening between the expectations based on the external structure and the actual outcome of the process of preference formation.The vulnarebility of state affects the degree to which state Ais likely to be influenced by state B.If a state has  a degree of vulnarebility to other states,tyhen it will attach more weight to its external political interest than to its internal interest in the process of preference-formation.

Connecting the Domestic and the International

The domestic and international strands now need to be connected in order to complete the theoritical frmework and answer the question under under which conditions either domestic or international considerations will be decivise in the process of preference formation.

In the process of preference formation,the expectations on the basis of domestic variables are that:

• The lower the internal polarity ,the more importance a state will attach to its internal intersts relative to its external interests
• The higher the internal polarity,the more importance a state will attach to its external interests relative to its internal interests.
• The higher the levels of societal resources and unidirectional mobilization,the higher the domestic political costs and benefit society can confront the government with the more likely a State is to take account of its domestic political interests.
• The greater a government’s sensitivity,the more importance a State will attach to its domestic political interests.

In the process of preference formation,the expectations on the basis of international variables are that:

• The lower the external polarity ,the more importance a state will attach to its external intersts relative to its internal interests.
• The higher the external polarity,the more importance a state will attach to its internal interests relative to its external interests.
• The greater a State’s vulnerability vis-à-vis other states,the more important it will attach to its international political interest.

French and German Preference Formation on International Agricultural Policy

This section will provide a preliminary empirical tst of the theoritical framework elaborated above.Four cases will be studied,one from each box.By selecting France and Germany is relatively low.The degree of centrlization of power in Germany is low,as it is a federal state.

Predicting a State’s Foreign Policy

Table 3.Internal Polarity ,External Polarity,and State Prefernces

		Internal Polarity
		High	Low
External Polarity	High	A No decisive effect either domestic or international considerations:processvariables gain in imporatnce	B Domestic considerations will be decisive
	Low	C International Considerations will be decisive	D No decisive effect of either domestic or international considerations :process variables gain in importance.

Conclusion

The investigation in German and French preference formation with regard to the 1988 CAP –reform and the agricultural part of the Uruguay Round of GATT-negotiations between 1990 and 1993 has shown differences in the relative influence of internal and external considerations.German resistance against the CAP-reform proposed by the commission was based on domestic consederation,reflecting the wishes of the German farm organizations.France also seemed commited to protect the interests of its farmers and tried to undemine the proposed system of stabilizers to that end.However,the fact that it introduced anf finally accepted set acide-a policy the Frech farm groups had no decisive imapct on their government during the negotiations.With respect to the agricultural part of the Uruguay round between 1990 and 1993,the German government confroted with domestic mobilization against compromosing on the agricultural chapter and facing parliementary elections in December 1990.